Governing climate change
Yesterday the Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC)* published its outlook on global warming and climate change. In its report they point out that there are two main causes of global warming: the emission of carbon dioxide and methane. Both gases are a by-product of energy generation and lead to a warming of the atmosphere. The platform (and the wider scientific community) expects that the world will be affected in the following ways in the twenty-first century:
- The temperature rises between 1,5 and 6 degrees Celsius (temperature rise was 0,7 degrees in the twentieth century).
- The sea level rises by 20 cm because of melting of ice and expanding water volumes due to the rise in temperature.
In their outlook for the Netherlands (till 2050) the PCCC expects a warming of 1 to 2,5 – 3 degrees Celsius, higher levels of precipitation, changing of wind directions, more extreme weather and a sea level rise of 15 – 35 cm.
There are two ways to deal with global warming. Firstly, global warming can be mitigated by reducing the consumption of energy, the use of alternative sources and durable energy, containment and storage of CO2 and preventing and reverting deforestation. Secondly, the world can adapt to it. For the Netherlands this would imply reinforcing the dikes and constructing other means of protection from the sea (the Western part of the Netherlands lies below sea level).
In politics there are several viewpoints. First of all, there are those who say that adaptation suffices. Human beings are part of nature, and their actions create a new equilibrium. The collectivist left-wing parties, though, argue that the burden and rewards are shared unequally. These parties are in favour of mitigating at the expense of economic productivity.
The liberal right-wing parties face a difficult decision when they think that some form of mitigation is necessary. As individualist they are against increasing the role of the state in the economy. They might, therefore, want to focus on creating public awareness and point out that by buying environmentally friendly products, one buys both the product and a cleaner environment for the price.
Producers might want to anticipate collective intervention by making agreements in their sector of industry. They could raise the minimum standard by applying (and demanding) new technology. In the end, though, there must be a demand for clean products. When consumers fail to take responsibility, collectivist will impose it on them.
* For more information please visit the website of PCCC, http://www.klimaatportaal.nl (only in Dutch).
A new report today suggests that average temperatures in the UK WILL rise by 4C by 2080. Summer temperatures in the UK could exceed 40C for periods at this time. This will have a devasting effect on natural habitats , agriculture, wildlife etc. It will also affect humans. In other parts of the world (the Poles , for example) average temperature increases will be far greater (10C and more).
Climate change will not destroy the world, it will modify it in ways that we may not find quite so pleasing (new illnesses, extreme summer-time smogs, much stroger air turbulence and winds, higher sea levels and new coastlines, water and food shortages in some parts of the world etc). Nature will adapt and evolve and a new equilibrium will be established – but what will be left of what we know and can 6.5 billion people (increasing fast) be part of it ?
So can we adapt as you discuss ? That is the “burning” question because the green house gases already up there will last for a century and more and the global warming that is going to take place now, whatever we do, is likely to trigger positive feed-back loops to further speed up the process.
My guess – the human species will survive but in much smaller numbers. Natural control / selection, call it what you will but basically it is the earth restoring order.
Hope I’m wrong friends, Tom
Dear Tom
Thank you for posting a comment. I agree with most of your analysis. I guess that eventually we will both mitigate and adapt. The burden will probably lay on those living in less developed countries. They will not be ’strong’ enough to ’survive’. I think though that nature will put in some counterweight. Look at volcanic eruptions for example: first the earth warms up, then the clouds block the sun and make the temperature drop again. Maybe, earth will react in a similar way to global warming. More heat, a higher humidity, more clouds and a cooling down. Anyway, this will affect the way we live on earth. The strongest will survive… like you pointed out. Who will be strongest by that time? Those who kept on producing and polluting, or those who paid the costs of reversion (like recent EU proposal of carbon dioxide reduction)?
Michel